COVID-19 Infection Rate DOWN

Don’t believe (how) everything you read (is supposed to make you feel). As of Noon on Tuesday, March 17, 2020, the Cronovirus count in Georgia is 146. That is a fact. This number is an increase of 25 from the count on Monday. That is also a fact. The AJC reports that the count has “climbed” to the new level. Technically, I guess they are not wrong because the number of cases has gone up. However, what they have failed to report is that the rate of increase has gone DOWN three days in a row. Not only do you not hear that, but you are told that (unidentified) “experts” say that the number is “likely far higher.” Why is that? Because people are not sick enough to seek medical attention they say. Hmmm. That sounds like those people are not really that sick then if they don’t need medical attention. If they aren’t really that sick, then maybe this epidemic is not that scary after all. But you don’t read that. Scary stories sell papers.

Normally, you would expect the rate of infection to increase during the beginning of an epidemic. That steep increase yields the scary graphs we all see on TV. But that is NOT the case here in Georiga. I’m not an epidemiologist nor a mathematician, but it looks like President Trump’s efforts are already showing some promise! The numbers might be going up, but they aren’t going up as fast as feared. Let’s hope this continues!

My trend analysis is very simplistic, but surprisingly my “prediction” for today was only off by -8 (straight-line) and 2 (non-linear). The death rate for the COVID-19 is 0.68% so far, and that sounds like somewhat good news. Good news that is unreported. What you read about is somewhere between 1.5% and 6%. Even better news is that the infected population is 0.0014% of Georgians. My heart goes out to those infected and their families, but the fact is that most of us are still unaffected.

Let’s keep following those COVID-19 guidelines, wash our hands, cover your mouth, stay home if you are sick, and let everybody get back to business! https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/coronavirus-guidelines-america/