• COVID-19 Report As of Monday, April 13, 2020 GA DPH Noon
  • Total Confirmed: 13,315 (+863) ▲
    • Consecutive day 0 of lower # of increases (14 needed) ▲
    • Daily Growth Rate: 7.2% (double # of cases every 14 days) ▲
    • Average Weekly Growth Rate: 9.1% (-0.4%) ▼
    • Total Infected (Est.): 133,150 (+8,630) ▲
    • Contagious, No Symptoms (Est.): 103,931 (+6,820) ▲
    • Contagious Ratio (Est.): 10 in every 1,000 Georgians (+1) ▲
  • Hospitalized: 2,589 (+84) ▲
    • Beds Available: 8,322
  • Deceased 464 (+31) ▲
    • Morbidity Rate: 3.48% (-0.13%) ✓
  • ▼= getting better; ▲= getting worse; ✓ = same

As I suspected, the good news of Easter COVID-19 numbers was all but reversed today. While everything was getting better yesterday, everything except the average weekly growth rate was getting worse today. Fig 1 shows the general trend upward within my rudimentary estimates. The good news is found in the decline in the weekly growth rate found in Fig 2. But that good news is offset by everything other metric going in the opposite direction. This is all likely due to bad data collection rather than bad data.

Fig 1

I’m supposed to develop new predictions for next week, but I just don’t feel up to it right now. Maybe later, maybe tomorrow. In the meantime, in Fig 1 you see the old prediction with today’s data. The data is within the margin of error and close to the “middle” prediction (green line). I’m still holding my breath for the Tuesday Jump, but IF the shape continues, things are cooling off. If there is a Jump, then we will just be seeing a repeating pattern of upward growth.

Fig 2

If you want to find something else to be mad about (besides Communist China’s COVID-19 pandemic), then check out this story about the No. 1 medical mask maker in the US–Prestige Ameritech. You would think that the owner would be running his plant 24/7 to meet demand, but he is not. Why? Because he did what he could during the last pandemic, but was then screwed by the same hospitals that are crying about not having personal protective equipment during this pandemic. He had to lay off workers and almost went bankrupt. His pleas and requests for contracts were met with deaf ears. You know the saying: Screw me once, shame on you; screw me twice, shame on me. (You might not remember the last pandemic, because Barry was the president, and the press LOVED him and did whatever was necessary to make him look good even if it was a completely lie. The CDC estimated that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million H1N1 cases, with 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S. alone. They also estimate that worldwide, 151,700 to 575,400 people died from (H1N1)pdm09 during the first year.) Apparently hospitals really need to save $0.08/mask in order to break even, so they order all their masks from China. I don’t think it is a good idea to rely upon an enemy state for strategic infrastructure, but nobody asked me. Apparently, we as a country did not learn our lesson from 2009-10 either. Prestige Ameritech now only sells to buyers who enter into purchase contracts. Good for them, shame on us.

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