• COVID-19 Report As of Wednesday, April 15, 2020 GA DPH Noon
  • Confirmed COVID-19 Cases: 14,987 (+754) ▼
    • Consecutive day #1 of decreasing growth (14 needed) ▼
      • (NOTE: I made an error yesterday, and the number went up slightly then, not down, so yesterday this should have been 0 not 1.)
    • Daily Growth Rate: 5.5% (-1.3%) ▼
    • Double Number of cases every 18 days
    • Average Growth Rate (7-Days): 6.2% (-0.8%) ▼
    • % of Population Affected: 0.1432% (+0.0074) ▲
  • Estimated
    • Total Infected (Est.): 149,870 (+7,640) ▼
    • Contagious, No Symptoms (Est.): 116,974 (+5,869) ▼
    • Contagious Ratio (Est.): 11 in every 1,000 Georgians (+0) ✓
  • Hospitalized: 2,922 (+153) ✓
  • Deceased 552 (+51) ▲
    • Morbidity Rate: 3.67% (+0.16%) ▲
  • ▼= getting better; ▲= getting worse; ✓ = same

Again today, the best news is the ever decreasing weekly growth rate. See Fig 1 (orange line), below. Fig 2, below, shows todays number is graph form with the predictions for the remainder of the week. Note that “kink” in the green line (Fig 2) brought the line pretty close to today’s actual number. You can look back and see that the kink was in there yesterday, so I did not cheat. Because it was so close to the actual number, I did not adjust the green line prediction for tomorrow, but I did adjust the yellow (average) and non-linear (orange) predictions, and the green line depends upon them. The green line predicts over 18,000 by the end of the week. I’m glad the rudimentary model I set up is working, but I sure hope the numbers will continue to slow down for more than a day at a time.

Fig 1
Fig 2

I took a graph from the Ga. Department of Public Health page to show the COVID-19 rate per 100,000 people by county in Georgia. Fig 3. While total numbers of cases are headline-grabbing, the real sense of a problem is the percentage of the population affected close to home. We read about a home invasion in Atlanta and we are mildly worried about law and order, but when we read about a home invasion of our nextdoor neighbor we are horrified and spurred to take action. As Fig 3 shows, Southwest Georgia is in bad shape. Apparently this is all because of two large funerals in the area. My heart goes out to all those affected, but especially those in SW Georgia.

Fig 3
All Rights Reserved to the Ga. Dep. Public Health

Now is the time to talk about what to do afterwards. Once the emergency declaration is removed, all these emergency orders dissolve automatically. Gone. Whoosh! But what about those businesses that were deemed non-essential that have had $0 in income? I know the Federal government is looking at some SBA loans, but I’ve never seen one that anyone qualified for in the past. I admit that this could be different, but in my experience SBA was not helpful to most small businesses unless they met specific ownership criteria. What about the hard shut down cases like salons, bowling alleys, massage therapists, and tattoo parlors, just to name a few, where take out was not an option. They took most of the hit with no way to generate income, so the Governor should allow them the most leeway when releasing the stay-at-home order. Something other than allowing them to get back some of the tax money that they have already paid in the form of a loan that they might have to pay back. Perhaps a sales tax exemption, business license fee exemption, or liquor license exemption. Something that costs real money to them but is nothing but pure profit to the government and not paying it would help the bottom line.

As to voting, it is a hot mess now. Are the new machines screwed up or not? Everyone got an absentee ballot in the mail. Even people who have recently died. The only people who don’t want a picture ID to vote are people who support voter fraud. You can’t convince me otherwise. You have to have a picture ID to buy cigarettes, alcohol, and to do almost everything. You even need a picture ID to attend the Democratic National Convention! Any election supervisor that does not support picture ID for voting is likely considering abetting voter fraud as well and should find another position. The end result of the COVID-19 virus is that the election will be about as reliable as one in a third-world country.

So much for the DPH numbers. The Gainesville Times noted a discrepancy earlier and again today that had Hall Co. deaths jump from 0 to 1 at noon then to 5 at 7 PM. All while the local reports say 1 happened a week ago and the other 4 are unknown. So we can’t count, we can’t provide real time testing, therefore we are just guessing our way through this? Is anybody really sick? Powerpoint is better than truth. What. The. Actual. Heck!

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