Day 35: Holding My Breath for More Signs of the Top

• COVID-19 Report As of Sunday, April 19, 2020 GA DPH NOON
• Consecutive day #3 of decreasing growth (14 needed) ▼
• Confirmed COVID-19 Cases: 18,301 (+460) ▼
  • Daily Growth Rate: 2.5% (-1.2%) ▼
  • Weekly Growth Rate: 5.7% (+0.2%) ▲
  • % of Population Affected: 0.1744% (+0.0042) ▼
  • Hospitalized: 3,464 (+17) ▼
    • Beds Available: 8,322 ✓ (Last Day for This Metric)
  • Deceased 687 (+10) ▼
  • Morbidity Rate: 3.75% (-0.04%) ▼
• Estimated Numbers
  • Double Number of cases every 40 days (was 27) ▼
  • Total Contagious: 146,408 (+3,680) ▼
  • Contagious but Out & About: 142,944 (+3,663) ▼
  • Contagious Ratio: 14 in every 1,000 Georgians (was 13) ▲
• ▼= getting better; ▲= getting worse; ✓ = same

Another weekend, some good numbers today, three days of downward trends which is also good, so you would think I would be joining all those excited about the end of the virus is near. Well, those three days were Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, and weekends have been notorious for looking good followed by surges the next week. Therefore, I will be cautious in my optimism. The weekly growth rate went up 0.2%, but that was because we “lost” a 1.4% growth rate on 4/12/20 and replaced it with the 2.5% growth rate today. The weekly growth rate had to go up because we had three days of growth from 4/13 through 4/16. We will never know if this was real growth or just an adjustment to the total number.

I read an article about Mass. that said that their estimate was that 1 out of every 3 people were contagious! Today I estimate that Georgia is at 14 out of every 1,000 people. Since it is hard to imagine 1,000 people, then it would be 7 out of every 500 people. Not much easier to picture. Let’s hope it does not get easier to picture (like 1 out of 3). I also estimate that 10.3M Georgians have not be infected by COVID-19. That is good, but it also means that there are 10.3M Georgians who are not immune to COVID-19.

The growth rates are both trending toward 0% where we want them, but they are not there yet. Fig 1. Until we get days with a daily increase of 0%, we will be stuck bouncing around the bottom. The total number continues to rise ominously. Fig 2. Even with small percentages of growth, the total number is still oppressive at 460 today. While not good news for the 10 who died, it is better than 27 the day before or 100 on 4/7/20. See Fig 2 for the details.

I don’t like the graph without the straight-line and exponential-growth trends graphed. However, this presentation is clearer. The prediction, however, is up. There has been a slight turn, but it is the weekend, and I’ve been fooled many times before.