Day 37: Still Going Up not Down

• COVID-19 Report As of Tuesday, April 21, 2020 GA DPH NOON
• Consecutive day #0 of decreasing growth (14 needed) ▲
• Confirmed COVID-19 Cases: 19,881 (+934) ▲
  • Daily Growth Rate: 5.0% (+1.3%) ▲
  • Weekly Growth Rate: 4.9% (-0.3%) ▲
  • % of Population Affected: 0.1900% (+0.0091%) ▲
  • Hospitalized: 3,779 (+229) ▲
  • Deceased 799 (+66) ▲
  • Morbidity Rate: 4.01% (+0.15%) ▲
• Estimated Numbers
  • Double Number of cases every 20 days (was 27) ▲
  • Total Contagious: 159,048 (+7,472) ▲
  • Contagious (but appear healthy): 155,269 (+7,243) ▲
  • Contagious Ratio: 15 in every 1,000 Georgians (was 14) ▲
• ▼= getting better; ▲= getting worse; ✓ = same

Yesterday we heard that the Governor has good news to report and that the numbers are going down. Like I said then, maybe the numbers he has been given are going down, or the prediction of future numbers is going down, but the actual numbers are continuing to go up. The number of deaths (66) is the highest single-day number since April 7, 2020, and the morbidity rate has reached a new “high” of 4.01%. The IHME prediction for today was 39 deaths which was off by -27. Fig 3. My model was off by -4. The promised IHME downward trend in deaths has not materialized yet but it is just day 1. The IMHE model predicts the number of deaths to go down every day hereafter until it hits 0 on May 30, 2020. I sincerely hope their model is correct, but I see no signs of it yet.

The daily growth rate went to 5.0% while the weekly average went down slightly to 4.9%. Fig 1. Note that the downward trend of the weekly growth rate has flattened out a bit. Fig 1 (orange line). Every metric I’ve been tracking is in the red (see above). The day to watch the data closely, however, will be Saturday (April 25, 202) after many closed businesses open back up. Unfortunately, weekend data has been slow, so we might not see anything meaningful until next Tuesday (April 28, 2020). The actual numbers to date with my future prediction are shown in Fig 2.