Day 39: Numbers Up but Deaths Still Tracking with IHME Model; Political Controversy

• COVID-19 Report As of Thursday, April 23, 2020 GA DPH NOON
• Consecutive day #2 of decreasing growth (14 needed) ▼
• Confirmed COVID-19 Cases: 21,512 (+772) ▼
  • Daily Growth Rate: 3.7% (-0.5%) ▲
  • Weekly Growth Rate: 4.0% (-0.7%) ▼
  • % of Population Affected: 0.2052% (+0.0073%) ▼
  • Hospitalized: 4,069 (+110) ▼
  • Deceased: 872 (+36) ▼
  • Morbidity Rate: 4.05% (+0.03%) ▲
• Estimated Numbers
  • Double Number of cases every 27 days (was 24) ▲
  • Total Contagious: 172,096 (+6,176) ▼
  • Contagious (but appear healthy): 168,027 (+6,066) ▼
  • Contagious Ratio: 16 in every 1,000 Georgians (was 15) ▲
• ▼= getting better; ▲= getting worse; ✓ = same

If you have read a newspaper or watched the news in the last couple of days then you know that just about every politician is complaining about Gov. Kemp’s decision to open the non-essential businesses starting tomorrow and in-restaurant dining starting on Monday. I’ve been concerned that the numbers he is relying upon are erroneous. By my count, we’ve had 2 good days in a row. Period. However, my “model” predicts more growth. I’m apparently not alone. The Northeast Georgia Health System also is projecting more growth, and they predict that (1) that they will reach staffing capacity on Star Wars Day (May 4th which is 11 days away) and that the peak in mid-June. I’ve attached a copy of their chart as Fig 1 below. NGHS has been critical all along saying the Governor did not do enough, soon enough, and now, that he is loosening restrictions too early. I’m loath to second guess him myself. In his autobiography, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Colin Powell said that a real leader has to make good decisions with about 40% of the information needed to make a good decision. Scientists want to wait until we have 100% of the information needed, but that is the luxury of historians judging the past not leaders making the the future.

As to other predictions, the IMHE death prediction for today, shown in Fig 2, was 37 which was the actual number of deaths today. My death estimate today was off today by -3, but I made my prediction yesterday, and IMHE made their prediction at least a week ago, so my hat is off to them. If Gov. Kemp was relying on IMHE numbers, then he can’t be faulted (despite my reservations about their model). In order to show the deaths per day and total deaths more clearly, I’ve created a new graph limited to showing just that. See Fig 3. The read line is the daily total, while the gray area is the total number of deaths. It looks ominous because I think it is.

My total chart is below as Fig 4. I only left the death total as a red area and removed the daily number because it could not really be read. I also limited the view of my prediction to one day since I am adjusting the prediction every day. The prediction, as you can see is for more of the same. The good news is that the weekly average is down to 4.0%. Fig 5. As you can see, this is the lowest so far, and continues the downward trend in confirmed cases.

On a closing political note, all the Blue states are lining up with their hands out to the Federal Government for a total bailout of all their debts from every possible source. If they made a bad bed in 2000 that has come to haunt them, they want YOU to pay for it under the guise of COVID-19. Never let a good disaster go to waste.

Sadly I also read the Vernon Jones has resigned. He was a Democratic member of the Georgia Senate, but he was run out of office after he endorsed Trump for President. Like he had any choice? Do we really need somebody with the cognition issues of Joe Biden running the country? Just Google him and enjoy trying to figure

(See what I did there?)