COVID-19 Rate Decreases on March 20, 2020

Yesterday, Thursday, March 19, 2020, we had a startling increase in infections of 48% with 95 new cases reported. My predictions were admittedly way off. However, today, March 20, 2020, is a new day and the increase in infections went down to 44% from 48%. My simplistic models did not do a very good job of predicting the jump on Thursday but did a better job keeping up with the changes today. You would expect the deviation because the straight line uses an average increase per day while the non-linear uses yesterday’s rate of change to predict the future. Neither projection is sophisticated. See the chart below.

I’ve noted that the AJC reports the percentage number (or their number which I think is off) on days when the rate of infection goes down, but says that the rate goes “up” on the days that it goes up leaving the reader to do the math. Again, both are “accurate,” but the rhetoric seems designed to inflame fears not provide information. I’m just providing the calculations for you and providing a graph to see the change over time. I hope to be unbiased. I don’t sell subscriptions, so I don’t need anyone to be afraid.

Keep on following those precautions and don’t give in to fear. Yes, we have reached the point of triple-digit daily increases, but this was expected, and we will likely see more. I’m expecting somewhere between 461 and 604 total cases tomorrow sadly. I will say that I went grocery shopping yesterday and there was PLENTY of food available. Sure there were some shortages, but I believe these shortages to be “artificial.” By “artificial” I mean that people are buying way more than they need, leaving others with none. A real shortage is when the actual demand (without hoarders) is higher than the source of supply. Unless everyone in Georgia got dysentery overnight without it being noticed by the authorities and needed an extreme amount of toilet paper, then we are seeing an “artificial” demand for toilet paper. The same goes for canned vegetables. I hope everyone is eating their veggies! The good news about an artificial shortage is that the market will settle down pretty soon as the hoarders run out of places to store their toilet paper and money to buy it with.