COVID-19 Rate Decreases 2nd Day In a Row

I’m late updating. It is Sunday (March 22, 2020) yet I’m writing about the Saturday numbers (March 21, 2020). The curve for the infection rate is starting to take the expected “exponential” shape with an increase in cases of 142 and, very sadly, a report of 10 deaths–the highest one-day total in Georgia since the epidemic began. Any good news is found in the rate of increase, which has gone down two days in a row–from 48% to 44% to 34%. I continue to be hopeful that the state-wide response is keeping the numbers manageable.

As you can see from the chart above, I’ve added a third prediction (in green) which is nothing more than a (mathematically lame) attempt to correct for the error in the other two simplistic models. I shudder with embarrassment to expose such poor models to public scrutiny, but it is best I want to do without falling down somebody else’s “rabbit hole.” I’m a lawyer, not an epidemiologist. No matter what “model” I use, the number can be expected to rise–at least for now.

By my count, we are on Day 7 of VP Pence’s 15-day self-quarantine. However, we are also on Day 3 (of 57) of Gov. Kemp’s >10-person gathering restrictions. For lawyers, we are on Day 7 of the GA Supreme Court order canceling non-emergency court proceedings.

In separate news, it appears that the mayor of New Orleans has given herself the martial power to restrict the purchase, distribution, and sale of firearms. The mainstream press has denied then ignored the story, the mayor has no comment. Martial law is a greater threat to America than any virus. Be safe. Use uncommon sense. But be ever vigilant of government restriction of freedom.

On the other hand, even alcohol-unfriendly Gainesville, Georgia is allowing “to go” orders with bottled beer and wine. It is not the Texas “pitcher of Margaritas to go” but it is a restriction of what seems to be a legal distinction without a difference. Since you can legally purchase bottled beer and wine at many retail stores already, I’m wondering why it was ever illegal to purchase bottled beer or wine from a restaurant in the first place. It seems like the government limiting options to pick winners to me. No way you can convince me that buying one bottle of beer is “evil” at Outback but it is “good” when you buy a six-pack at Wal-Mart. The restriction is likely tied to maximizing tax revenue and not health and safety.