Day 16: Before the Numbers

I started writing today before I got the numbers for Day 16. Minutephysics had a link to a fellow who has a very interesting (scary) graph of the pandemic around the world. You can view a version of the graph by clicking here. What the infographic shows is that overall the US numbers are bad and appear to be on a bad path compared to the other first world countries. When you look at the animated graph using the logarithmic scale, exponential growth (the kind of growth that COVID-19 is on) is shown as a straight line moving up and to the right. See Fig 1. I don’t believe anything that Communist China says, but I have shown their data because they are the Patient Zero in this pandemic. I’ve shown a few other First World countries for comparison purposes. Fig 2 shows the reported deaths for the same countries during the same timeframe on the same scale. Remember also that disease growth only cares about the number of people available to infect and the rate of infection. It tops out when either everyone is infected or we isolate the infected and slow or stop the growth. I’m not a doctor, but that is pure logic.

I read and hear about us all being in this together. I agree to the extent that the actions that each of us takes can impact others. I also agree that we should all follow CDC guidelines to reduce the infection rate. I chafe at the socialist feel to this phrase. Yes, we are all Americans and we all need to cooperate to slow or stop the rate of infection. But we are not all equally impacted. I’ve neither the time nor inclination to do a state-by-state analysis, but New York City is in real trouble. I suspect that it won’t be long before people will flee the area (infected or not), and imagine the impact on the rest of us. They will bring their trouble to all of us. New York City has as many people as all of Georgia! Florida had a border blockade of sorts this weekend. On Saturday, March 28, 2020, Florida Governor DeSantis announced that drivers from New York City on I-95 will be stopped and advised to self-isolate. So like all governments they start by floating an idea (often called a trial balloon), followed by asking for voluntary compliance, the commanding compliance, then demanding that we follow orders followed by enforcement at the barrel of a gun. If you think I’m hyperbolizing here, ALL laws are enforced at the barrel of a gun–even parking laws eventually if you don’t show up or pay online. People simply don’t volunteer to walk down to the jail and turn themselves in like Otis on The Andy Griffith Show. If people don’t self-isolate, they will be isolated by force. It is just a simple fact of government.