Day 15: COVID-19 Rate Plummets to 6%

Update: Apparently the reporting process is flawed on weekends (and on Monday), as there was a dramatic increase on Tuesday, March 31, 2020. See that post for more details. Fig 3 shows the explosive growth of 1,008 reported in one day. I can see why other trackers show figures weekly to avoid this phenomenon.

Another day with “good” news. Admittedly, no day bringing more misery to more Georgians is a truly good day, but the growth rate plummeted from 12% to 6% today, and that is something to be grateful for. Excel chose today to fight me, so I had to re-create my main chart (Fig 2) and tweaked the other chart (Fig 1) to show a rolling weekly average rate of change (averaging the past 7 days instead of using the average for the entire pandemic). I got the idea to use weekly averages from minutephysics to smooth out COVID-19 data. I’ve moved the rate of change chart (Fig 1) up because that is the real news over the past few days. While the rate of change has been anything but steady, you can clearly see the rate of change trending down over time (blue). The weekly average (orange) removes some of the ups and downs to make the downward trend even more clear to see. No doubt that the COVID-19 precautions are having an impact. Bringing this rate of change down is absolutely “flattening” the curve. I also changed the main chart (Fig 2) to display the number of new cases reported daily (blue) while the gray bars show the total (infected plus deaths). I hope that my models will over-predict tomorrow’s numbers.

In related COVID-19 news, I’m sure everyone heard that President Trump has asked us to limit contact outside of our home (also commonly called continue to shelter in place) through the end of April 2020. Tomorrow would be the end of V.P. Pence’s initial shelter in place period.

I read my first report of an arrest in New Jersey of a man who held a “Corona” party in flagrant violation of best hygiene practices. The story is here.

I just got an email extending the no-court rule in the Northern District of Georgia until May 15, 2020. You can download a copy of Order 20-01a below.