Day 27: Important Numbers Still Up; Daily Growth and Rate Down

• COVID-19 Report As of Saturday, April 11, 2020 GA DPH Noon
• Total Confirmed: 12,261 (+778) ▼
  • Daily Growth Rate: 6.6% (double # of cases every 15 days) ▼
  • Average Weekly Growth Rate: 9.9% ✓
  • Total Infected (Est.): 122,610 (+7,780) ▲
  • Asymptomatic but Contagious (Est.): 98,088 (+8,383) ▲
  • Asymptomatic Ratio: 9 in every 1,000 Georgians ✓
• Hospitalized: 2,491 (+140) ▼
  • Beds Available: 8,322 ✓
• Deceased 432 (+16) ▼
  • Morbidity Rate: 3.61% (-0.09%) ▼
• ▼= getting better; ▲= getting worse; ✓ = same

Some people see trends better with graphs and some with words and numbers. I’ve included both here in this late post. The increase of 778 cases reported on Saturday, April 11, 2020, was better than the 917 reported on Friday, April 10, 2020. So we have one day of a downward trend, Fig 1 (blue line), out of the 14 that we need to indicate a peak in the outbreak. The overall growth still looks to be exponential, but not as bad as my rudimentary predictions estimated on the high end. Compare Fig 1, gray bars to orange line. The good news is that while the orange line continues almost straight up, the actual (gray bar) is increasing as a more moderate pace. The average weekly growth rate stayed the same at 9.9%. The worst news is that there may be an additional 8,000 people who are contagious but are out and about thinking that they are healthy.

I’m a lawyer, not a doctor, but I’ve read some articles written with medical input that seem to indicate that immunity is not absolute. (However, I have personal experience with reporters getting even the simplest things all wrong even when given unfettered access to the accurate information.) Some immunity last forever (like chicken pox) while some disease never triggers immunity (AIDS). In between we have things like the seasonal flu, which imbues the infected with 10 months of so of immunity. You lose the immunity just in time to get the flu again next year! I suppose I already knew that, otherwise why would there be a flu shot every year, but I hoped that it was a different flu each year I suppose or they were just hoping to get another $30 out of everyone. Turns out, there are just 4 kinds of flu and humans can only get 3 of them. Without an annual flu shot, we are all susceptible to getting the flu again next year. With COVID-19 there is not enough evidence to determine how long the immunity lasts. Two weeks is for sure so far. Longer is unknown. I’ve read all sorts of crazy stuff about COVID-19 ID cards and other stuff. I write most of that off. But a short-duration immunity and no cure or immunization means that this crap will be a problem forever, not just through April 2020. We can’t all stay home forever, so a Plan B needs to be developed and soon.

The best news for my friends who bristle at the Government telling them to stay home, is that all non-dictator forms of government seem to never be able to get their “shit together” fast enough to do anything except close the proverbial barn door after the horses have all escaped. Any real threat to freedom by the various governments arising from this pandemic is likely to arise afterwards (as in every shooting where the victims are not Republicans). Anything that happens during the pandemic can be overturned when cooler heads prevail–unless you live in a jurisdiction where your freedoms already sit on a razor’s edge to start with. I’m looking at you, Virginia. Vote in the booth or with your feet to end tyranny. Perhaps the best way to vote is with your wallet. Identify bad actors and trade only with their competitors.

Regardless of political feelings, during a pandemic, don’t run around town letting strangers share their infection with you to bring back to your loved ones. You can clean your guns and fill sandbags without leaving your house. (BTW, those cloth masks recommended by the CDC are to protect OTHERS from you, not to protect YOU from others. It just keeps the spittle from your mouth from becoming airborne. Wearing one is the polite thing to do really.) It is looking like around 3.5% of people who get COVID-19 die from it (that is just math not some hokey prediction). If that works out to be the final number then we could lose 367,500 Georgians. That is a risk I’m not willing to take myself.