No two ways about it, Day 12 brought some bad numbers, but the rate of increase has not dramatically increased which should be the takeaway for everyone. A report of 472 new cases in one day is bad news for everyone, but I warned earlier that in an exponential growth curve, each daily increase is likely to be the largest increase to date. That is just the way the numbers work out. The rate of increase, the most important statistic, is at 31% (Day 12), up from 23% yesterday (Day 11). We have had eight days with higher rates of increase (out of the 18 that I’ve been tracking), so that means that we had nine days with lower rates and that puts us in the middle. (Mathematically, the mean, or average, rate of change is 34% and the median rate of change is 31%.) We also had 16 additional deaths since yesterday, bringing the total to 64. To put that in perspective, we normally lose 3 people per day to car wrecks, so we would have lost 54 people during this same time period. The saddest part is that we probably also lost 54 people in car wrecks in addition to the 64 lost to the virus. The shape of this growth curve should put to rest any talk about Gov. Kemp’s restrictions being too harsh. New York City was doubling the infected numbers every two days until recently! We are in better shape than that. However, if the rate of growth remains along the median, we might see more restrictions put in place to slow the growth. The best pay to avoid government restrictions is to follow the CDC recommendations ourselves.

COVID-19 Figures with Three Predicted Paths

I think that today might be the last day that I track a straight-line projection since the growth rate is clearly non-linear (aka exponential). The yellow line in the graph above is clearly a hopeful number rather than a prediction.

Do The Five!
COVID-19 3/27/29 Prediction with 3/38/20 Data Overlay
(Sorry the Chart Title is Incorrect: Should be 2/28/20
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