Well, I’m starting to get really excited about the growth rate today but I know that it is too early to get too excited though. My corrected model was only off by 8 today, so that means that the growth rate could be reaching the top. The number of new COVID-19 cases reported today was 291 and that number is the third highest that we’ve had and not much higher than the 4th highest. While that is not good, you would expect the growth every day to be the first or second highest, not the third or fourth highest. The rate of growth is 12% which is the third-lowest ever–bumping the 18% from yesterday to 4th place. This is great news because a decreasing rate is an indication of nearing the top of the growth curve. Of course, we never know the shape of the curve until we get to the end of it. I decided to include a chart of the growth rate below in addition to the usual chart. The total deaths are now 80 bringing the death rate for COVID-19 to 3%. However, I’ve noticed underreporting on the weekends with a bump on Monday, so I’ve got my fingers crossed here that the decrease today is not just a phantom.

COVID-19 Infected, Deaths, and Three Predictions
Same Chart as above but overlayed with 3/30/20 Data
(Increase within Model Predictions)
COVID-19 Daily, Average % Change

I’ve heard scattered reports of martial law from around the state, but no reports of enforcement by law enforcement or military. Yet. The U.S. Forrest Service has shut down almost all the cool hiking trails in North Georgia including the Appalacian Trial (something I thought would be impossible). Hall County and Gainesville issued a joint resolution on Friday for people to say in their homes unless going out for a critical reason (like food, medicine, or medical treatment). However, it was a beautiful Spring day today. How do we strike a balance for safety? Are healthy people to be subjugated while the infected (and released prisoners) roam freely about? The Gainesville Times is calling Gov. Kemp out for not imposing a state-wide house arrest, but I think that simply goes too far and The Times is wrong as can be. If Georgia has one big problem it is assuming that what is good for Atlanta is good for all of Georgia. That is simply not true (and it has never been true). The best government is the government closest to the people who are governed. If the Gainesville Times wants to put all of Hall County under house arrest, they need to get their own country and impose their will upon its inhabitants at the point of their own guns. Atlanta might need a firmer hand to keep the spread of the virus down. But that might not work for Albany or Hiawassee. Local government, in conjunction with medical personnel and law enforcement, can monitor and take appropriate action without punishing everyone. Just like the everlasting “gun control” debate, we all know that the considerate, God-fearing, law-abiding citizens will follow the rules, whatever they may be, while the inconsiderate, thieving, raping, murdering, drug dealing, life-has-no-meaning thugs will continue to do whatever they want regardless of the rules. Don’t make rules that punish the law-abiding or you risk turning all of us into “criminals.” Then who will subscribe to your paper?

Thanks for rating this! Now tell the world how you feel - .
How does this post make you feel?
  • Excited
  • Fascinated
  • Amused
  • Bored
  • Sad
  • Angry