Day 22: Fooled by Weekend Slackers (Again), Apparent Rate Rises
Monday, April 6, 2020Day 22 of the COVID-19 Quarantine Well once again, the reporting over the weekend seems to take the weekend off with the number just being shoved onto Monday. I can REALLY see why other people crunching the numbers are averaging the weekly numbers for reporting to avoid what appears to be an...
Day 21: Topping the Curve?
Sunday April 5, 2020Day 20 of the President’s Stay-at-Home Quarantine First off, I want to give a shout out to the Almighty for a beautiful day today in North Georgia! If you were in a cabin in the woods without Internet or TV, you would think that the World was perfect today. No global warming...
Day 20: Late Post with a Good Downward Trend Continuing; Still 6 in 1,000 Georgians Contagious
I’m really getting tired of the MSM downplaying any good news and only playing up all the bad news. Even then they do mention any good news they put it in the middle of the story buried where it is likely to be missed. I’m writing this on Sunday, April 5, 2020, but the trend...
Day 19: First Day of Statewide Lockdown while Numbers are Down; 6 in 1,000 May Be Infected Up From 5 in 1,000 Just Yesterday
As you can see from the now-familiar COVID-19 rate change chart (Fig 1) the rate of increase today was way down and so was the number of new cases. Whew! This is the lowest average rate keeping the downward trend, thank goodness. This downward trend comes on day #1 of the state-wide stay-at-home order. This...
Day 18: Right on the Wrong Track; 5 in 1,000 Georgians Likely Carrying Virus
With an increase of 812 reported cases today it is hard to see the COVID-19 “curve” for anything other than what it is–exponential growth. See Fig 1. You can see the same curve in the US data here. The daily percentage was down slightly today to 17% but the weekly average remains in the 20%...
Day 17: Daily Increase goes down to 22% and weekly average growth remains steady at 21%; 4 in 1,000 Georgians Carry the Virus
I have to admit that the numbers yesterday made it hard to see the silver lining in the cloud. But the number of new cases today was down to 831. The weekly average growth rate held steady at 21% (Fig 1). Georgia is still on an exponential growth curve, however. That means that the number...
Day 16: Big Jump in Number of New Confirmed Cases but Invisible Contagious Cases Could be as many as 3 per thousand Georgians
Today brought an unhappy increase of 1,008 new confirmed cases to Georgia and a rate increase to 36%–a rate we have not seen since Day 5. We also saw the largest one-day number of deaths at 21. I don’t know if this is a delay in reporting over the weekend or if this is a...
Day 16: Before the Numbers
I started writing today before I got the numbers for Day 16. Minutephysics had a link to a fellow who has a very interesting (scary) graph of the pandemic around the world. You can view a version of the graph by clicking here. What the infographic shows is that overall the US numbers are bad...
Day 15: COVID-19 Rate Plummets to 6%
Update: Apparently the reporting process is flawed on weekends (and on Monday), as there was a dramatic increase on Tuesday, March 31, 2020. See that post for more details. Fig 3 shows the explosive growth of 1,008 reported in one day. I can see why other trackers show figures weekly to avoid this phenomenon. Another...
Day 14: COVID-19 Rates Fall Again to 12%–6% Less than Yesterday
Well, I’m starting to get really excited about the growth rate today but I know that it is too early to get too excited though. My corrected model was only off by 8 today, so that means that the growth rate could be reaching the top. The number of new COVID-19 cases reported today was...
Day 13: COVID-19 Rate Third Lowest Ever
While it is way too early to know for sure, it is sure a great day when the rate of increase drops to the third-lowest rate ever at 18%. The lowest rate was 3% on Day -3 (3/12/20) and 7% on Day 7 (3/16/20). Here’s hoping and praying that we are approaching the top of...
Day 12: A Rough Day for Georgia
No two ways about it, Day 12 brought some bad numbers, but the rate of increase has not dramatically increased which should be the takeaway for everyone. A report of 472 new cases in one day is bad news for everyone, but I warned earlier that in an exponential growth curve, each daily increase is...