Day 19: First Day of Statewide Lockdown while Numbers are Down; 6 in 1,000 May Be Infected Up From 5 in 1,000 Just Yesterday
As you can see from the now-familiar COVID-19 rate change chart (Fig 1) the rate of increase today was way down and so was the number of new cases. Whew! This is the lowest average rate keeping the downward trend, thank goodness. This downward trend comes on day #1 of the state-wide stay-at-home order. This...
Day 17: Daily Increase goes down to 22% and weekly average growth remains steady at 21%; 4 in 1,000 Georgians Carry the Virus
I have to admit that the numbers yesterday made it hard to see the silver lining in the cloud. But the number of new cases today was down to 831. The weekly average growth rate held steady at 21% (Fig 1). Georgia is still on an exponential growth curve, however. That means that the number...
Day 16: Big Jump in Number of New Confirmed Cases but Invisible Contagious Cases Could be as many as 3 per thousand Georgians
Today brought an unhappy increase of 1,008 new confirmed cases to Georgia and a rate increase to 36%–a rate we have not seen since Day 5. We also saw the largest one-day number of deaths at 21. I don’t know if this is a delay in reporting over the weekend or if this is a...
Day 16: Before the Numbers
I started writing today before I got the numbers for Day 16. Minutephysics had a link to a fellow who has a very interesting (scary) graph of the pandemic around the world. You can view a version of the graph by clicking here. What the infographic shows is that overall the US numbers are bad...
Day 15: COVID-19 Rate Plummets to 6%
Update: Apparently the reporting process is flawed on weekends (and on Monday), as there was a dramatic increase on Tuesday, March 31, 2020. See that post for more details. Fig 3 shows the explosive growth of 1,008 reported in one day. I can see why other trackers show figures weekly to avoid this phenomenon. Another...
Day 14: COVID-19 Rates Fall Again to 12%–6% Less than Yesterday
Well, I’m starting to get really excited about the growth rate today but I know that it is too early to get too excited though. My corrected model was only off by 8 today, so that means that the growth rate could be reaching the top. The number of new COVID-19 cases reported today was...
Day 13: COVID-19 Rate Third Lowest Ever
While it is way too early to know for sure, it is sure a great day when the rate of increase drops to the third-lowest rate ever at 18%. The lowest rate was 3% on Day -3 (3/12/20) and 7% on Day 7 (3/16/20). Here’s hoping and praying that we are approaching the top of...
Day 12: A Rough Day for Georgia
No two ways about it, Day 12 brought some bad numbers, but the rate of increase has not dramatically increased which should be the takeaway for everyone. A report of 472 new cases in one day is bad news for everyone, but I warned earlier that in an exponential growth curve, each daily increase is...
Day 11: COVID-19 Up Slightly to 23%
It seems like the rate of change continues to be uneven for this virus. With an increase of 282 COVID-19 cases as of the March 26, 2020 Noon report, it brings the rate up one percentage point. Eight additional deaths brings the total to 48. Our total count today was 1,529. It seems improbable that...
Day 10: COVID-19 Rate Drops to 22% from 34%
Today’s increase was 222 and that was the 2nd highest number of new cases thus far. (I can probably omit this statistic in the future because with an exponential growth curve, the recent growth is almost always the first or second largest.) It is the rate of change that is most important, and the rate...
Day 9: COVID-19 Rate at 34%
Today the COVID-19 infection numbers reached triple digits. It is an unfortunate number, but it still only represents 0.0098% of Georgians. Also, the 34% rate of increase is not the biggest one-day increase we have seen so far (but the number is the biggest at 261). Sadder still, 7 additional deaths were reported, bringing the...
Day 8: COVID-19 Rate of Increase Recovers (But not Sharply) to 27%
Today I’m writing about today’s numbers (Monday, March 23, 2020). After what can only be a bauble in the reporting over the weekend, we had the biggest one-day numerical increase to date of 165. The Georgia DPH notes that this increase is due to the increased efficiency of electronic reporting from private laboratories. But that...